This Weeks Currency and Forex Market Summary

The September U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at 93.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 97.34. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 93.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at 93.06.

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The September Euro closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 112.52. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 110.64 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 114.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 114.85. Second resistance is the February's high crossing at 115.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 110.64. Second support is May's low crossing at 108.37.

The September Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.0774. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near term. If September extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0526 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.1042 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0964. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is May's low crossing at 1.0526. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0373.

The September Canadian Dollar closed unchanged on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 79.46 is the next downside target. If September resumes this month's rally, May's high crossing at 83.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 82.35. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 83.75. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 80.39. Second support is June's low crossing at 79.46.

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at .8300 is the next upside target. If September renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at .7415 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at .8180. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8300. First support is June's low crossing at .7956. Second support is monthly support crossing at .7415.

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Currency Market Summary and Recap for Week Ending January 16th - Dollar, Franc, Euro, Pound, Yen

The March U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this winter's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.29 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 94.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 93.56. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 94.32. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 92.28. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.29.

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The March Euro closed lower on Friday as it extends this winter's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at 112.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 119.87 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 117.96. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 119.75. First support is today's low crossing at 114.67. Second support is weekly support crossing at 112.75.

The March British Pound closed lower on Friday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. If March extends the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 1.4806 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.5351 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.5261. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.5351. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.5027. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4806.

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's huge rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.2503 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.0172 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.1862. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.2503. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.9777. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9421.

The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at 80.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.33. First support is today's low crossing at 82.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at 80.30.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday marking a downside reversal. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at .8398 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at .8663 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at .8663. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2013-2014 decline crossing at .8773. First support the reaction low crossing at .8282. Second support is December's low crossing at .8219.

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Currency Market Summary for Week Ending February 28th

The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday as it renewed February's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If March extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 79.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.49 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.49. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.91. First support is today's low crossing at 79.70. Second support is December's low crossing at 79.50.

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The March Euro closed higher on Friday as it renews the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the rally off February's low, December's high crossing at 138.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 136.59 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 138.26. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 138.93. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 136.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 135.62.

The March British Pound closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March resumes the rally off February's low, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7043 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.6550 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1.6821. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7043. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.6550. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.6247.

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at .11615 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at .11187 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at .11398. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at .11615. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at .11187. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .11067.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.34 are needed to temper the near term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off last week's high, February's low crossing at 88.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 91.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-January decline crossing at 92.32 . First support is last Friday's low crossing at 89.27. Second support is this month's low crossing at 88.99.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. Today's high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .10026 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing at .9672 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .9920. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .10026. First support is last Friday's low crossing at .9725. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .9672.

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U.S. Dollar in a Large Energy Field, Capable of Carrying it Much Higher

The dollar index happens to be lower for the week as of this writing, however it is higher for the month and also the quarter. In fact, a close around current levels would represent the best close in three quarters for this index. We continue to be long this market based on both weekly and monthly Trade Triangles.

However, we would like to see this market begin to gain some upside traction soon, otherwise it is in danger of rolling over and negating the powerful energy field that’s below this market. Let’s just be patient, and see how this market plays out on Thursday and Friday. This index is coming from a large energy field that is capable of carrying it much higher, possibly up to the 80.00 – 81.00 area. Intermediate and Long Term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.

The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday ending a two day correction off Monday's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.31 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.29. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.31.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85



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